Iran is Quickly Becoming Trump’s Ukraine

Callum Reddy

In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted from September 16th through September 21st, President Trump’s approval rating was found to be 37%. This is the lowest approval rating a president has had entering the midterms in the history of the WSJ poll, which has run since 1990. The poll also shows Americans’ fatigue with the economy, finding 65% of Americans did not view the economy as strong, and that 60% believe that the President’s policies have had a negative impact on the economy. 

The Iran War, which President Trump has not indicated an endpoint for yet, has resulted in the closure and/or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route for middle eastern oil. As a result, gas prices have risen by $1.49 per gallon since the start of the war, a 50 percent increase. Inflation has also risen as a result of the Strait’s closure, as it has raised the inflation rate from 2.4% to 3.4%, and the ten-year treasury yield, a measure of inflation, fiscal risk, and economic growth, has risen from 4% to 5%. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage average has increased from 6% to 7%. It is these economic factors that have created the negative view on Trump’s economy that the American public currently holds.

Trump’s unwillingness to budge on Iran, despite the lack of achieving any goals and significant damage to the US economy, is a very similar situation to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since February of 2022, Russia has been embroiled in a conflict in Ukraine. Despite rapid advancement towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, during the initial stages of the war, Russia has stagnated since then. They have overtaken roughly 12% of Ukrainian territory during that time, but they have lost territory overall compared to their holdings a few weeks into the war. 

Far more concerning than the war’s stagnation has been the extremely high amount of Russian casualties. Russia has suffered 1.4 million casualties, over two times the Ukrainian total. The casualty rate has reached such a devastating level that Russian recruitment has not been able to replace all of the casualties in recent months. Russia’s oil industry has been decimated by Ukrainian missile strikes, causing mass fuel shortages and damaging its economy. Despite the devastating losses faced by Russia, Putin, like Trump, has given no indication of a schedule for bringing troops home. 

While the United States’ involvement in Iran has not nearly reached the destructive impact on Russia’s war with Ukraine, the decision to continue fighting by both leaders is similarly baffling. Both are fighting wars of aggression, with unclear objectives for their campaigns. Neither Russia nor the US is making progress in their respective wars, while the wars cause the United States and Russia to experience great economic pains. Despite this, both Trump and Putin have kept their feet on the gas, continuing to promise the same results they did at the beginning of their wars. While Putin’s authoritarian grip over Russia allows him much more freedom to continue throwing men at the Ukraine war, Trump faces hugely consequential midterm elections in early November. If Republicans lose full control over Congress, the practically unchecked power he has enjoyed to this point in his second term will disappear. So, every day longer that Trump keeps the United States at war with Iran is another day building towards the truly dire state Russia finds itself in, however far away such a situation is, and an increased chance of losing his historic amounts of power.