The Illusion of Peace in Ukraine

By: Saanvi Chitneni

As of 2026, Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on for twelve years, and it seems like there is no end in sight.

Currently, the advance of Russian troops during the first months of 2026 has slowed down significantly. Russian infiltration tactics are becoming less effective due to the Ukrainian armed forces changing their drone tactics. Rather than focusing on Russian personnel, they are targeting supply systems, communications, air defense, and drone control systems. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now turned into a protracted war, where both sides adapt to each other’s tactics and develop counter-strategies in response. It is difficult to see how the two sides will be able to free themselves from a war that now resembles a stalemate.

Additionally, negotiations on peace have stalled between Moscow and Kyiv. The latest round of negotiations took place in mid-February of 2026 between Ukraine, Russia, and the US. According to the BBC, both President Zelensky and President Putin attribute this pause to the war in Iran being the main focus of American negotiators. However, negotiations between the three countries seemed to have lost momentum even before the Iranian War. One major factor preventing peace talks from progressing is the deep mistrust between the two countries, with a long history of broken ceasefire deals - dating all the way back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014. The Minsk Agreement, signed in September 2014, was broken within hours by Russia. From then on, ceasefire agreements from Minsk-2 in 2015 to “Easter” truces in 2016, 2017, and 2018, as well as the 20-minute ceasefire in 2020, all were signed and then immediately broken; sometimes within minutes. Many violations of the agreements were mainly carried out by Moscow, creating a deep mistrust between the two countries today and almost making President Zelensky appear uncooperative during recent peace talks.

Furthermore, President Putin has expressed that Russia is not interested in negotiations. Despite high casualties on the ground and economic strain, Putin believes that he is winning the war and able to outlast Ukraine on the battlefield long-term.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has now become a war of adaptation, endurance, and exhaustion. Combined with their history of mistrust, lack of recent negotiations, and Russia’s determination to subjugate Ukraine, a comprehensive peace deal in the near future seems highly unlikely.