The Gaza Ceasefire: What’s Next?

By: Saanvi Chitneni

Recently, the United States government has declared the ceasefire in Gaza to be in phase two of the timeline. But were the promises of phase one ever delivered?

Trump’s “20-point plan” during phase one outlined key actions such as ending attacks, releasing both Israeli and Palestinian hostages, an unimpeded surge of humanitarian aid, disarming Hamas, and progress towards Palestinian reconstruction and statehood. Many of these plans never became a reality; the only one that did was the release of Israeli hostages, with Hamas claiming some Palestinian prisoners were never released. Other parts of the 20-point plan have been stalled by violations on both sides. Both sides continue to carry out attacks, Israel continues to block humanitarian aid, and Hamas has rejected any proposed sequenced disarmament plans. Palestinian reconstruction has barely begun, and the Palestinian Authority is currently too economically and politically weak to work towards statehood.

So, as both sides have violated different parts of the ceasefire agreement, and progress on disarmament and reconstruction has barely moved forward, why has Trump declared the ceasefire to be in phase 2? Phase 2 focuses on the long-term, with a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, disarmament, and security alternatives for Hamas, and the establishment of permanent state borders. Trump has already put parts of phase 2 into effect with the creation of the Board of Peace, which will oversee Gaza’s technocratic transitional government. But with such a fragile ceasefire agreement, and both sides accusing each other of violations, a successful long-term ceasefire seems unlikely. Israel and the US seem determined to demilitarize the region and disarm Hamas (i.e., moving on to phase 2), while Hamas has repeatedly rejected such proposals in the past without the confirmation of Israel’s withdrawal and Palestinian statehood. Furthermore, the attacks on the Gaza Strip continue from both sides.

With the new developments of the ceasefire, many feel hopeful about an end to the conflict. But the agreement has let most Gazians survive; it has not let them be free. It may never due to its failure to follow up on its own promises. The focus of the United States government should be on stopping continuous ceasefire breaches, as well as improving humanitarian conditions and stopping ongoing violence.