The 2025 Elections Spell Disaster for Trump
Callum Reddy
The Trump Administration knows that the 2026 midterms are almost guaranteed to be a resounding win for Democrats. Since the turn of the 21st century, only once has a party in power gained seats in both the senate and the house; the Republican Party in 2002
Now, after the results of the 2025 elections, things look even more dire for Trump and the rest of his party. New Jersey, a state that Trump only lost by about 6 points, swung back to the Democrats with Mikie Sherrill winning the gubernatorial election by 13 points. In Virginia, Jay Jones won the attorney general’s race, despite texts he made saying that then Virginia House Speaker, Republican Todd Gilbert, deserved “bullets to the head.” Notably, according to NBC News, 91% of people who strongly disapproved of Trump’s presidency in Virginia, out of 49% of total voters, voted for Jones. This shows that people in Virginia voted not for Jones, but against Republicans.. Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral race, Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia gubernatorial election, and Aftab Pureval won the Cincinnati mayoral election. Democrats are seeing shocking victories across the nation. This resounding Democratic nationwide success makes the Republican’s midterm election chances look even worse. People voted more Democratic than expected, many people voting with keeping Trump’s power in check in mind. Because of this, it is reasonable to predict that Republicans will suffer midterm losses even worse than normal, which would severely limit Trump’s power in his second term.
The Trump Administration has employed a “flood the zone” strategy —using executive orders and packing up other policies into a single bill in order to pass as much policy at once as they could. The tactic was to flood congress with so many bills that the Democrats simply would not be able to block it all. However, these bills will be much harder to pass if Trump sees a dip in his support in the second half of his term. Without full Republican control of congress, Trump will not be able to pass as wide of a range of bills as he can right now.
Republicans have been determined to take whatever actions are necessary to gain a leg up in the midterms without getting more votes. Starting in Texas, the nationwide Republican party has tried to get Republican states to redistrict their House of Representatives early. So far, Republicans in Texas, North Carolina and Ohio have redrawn maps of their districts, purely in order to get more Republicans in congress, and try to soften the impending blow of midterms. However, Republicans got even worse news in the recent elections when California passed Proposition 50. It allows the Democrats who are in control of the state government to redistrict the state temporarily, until the 2030 census, when it will go back to an independent redistricting commission. This win is the first time that Democrats have broken precedent to respond to Trump and the Republican Party breaking precedent.
The 2025 elections have only served to worsen Republicans' outlook on the 2026 midterms. However, these results look even worse for Trump. Republican strategist Mike Murphy said that, “Trump, whose brand is built on strength, will be a loser. And after he lost to Biden, his support in the republican party dropped tremendously… Trump fatigue might set in.” This seemingly impending resounding Democratic 2026 midterm success could kill Trump's legacy. Trump and people around him have floated the concept of him somehow avoiding the 22nd amendment and becoming president for a third time in 2028. However, losing control of congress and therefore struggling to get his policy agenda completed would, as Murphy said, weaken the image that has propelled him to the oval office. As Murphy said, this could create “Trump fatigue,” something that would likely end his lofty dreams.