After New Start: An Era of Unregulated Development
by Maggie Colyer , Co-Chief Technology Officer
February 5, 2026 marked a terrifying shift in our geopolitical landscape: the expiration of the New START treaty removed all restrictions on nuclear and ballistic missile development for the United States and Russia–the world’s nuclear superpowers.
The New START treaty followed a line of international arsenal development agreements, beginning with the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), which resulted in the development of the Anti–Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 1972 and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) in 1991. The United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002, resulting in Russia’s withdrawal from the amended START Treaty (START II), and ending a period of military cooperation. Without limitations, the capabilities of military technology increased rapidly–as did the need for arms control. The New START Treaty filled this void in 2011, bringing with it strict regulations and transparency measures for weapon deployment. The treaty was granted a 5-year extension in 2021, which moved its expiration to 2026. Now, without the option for an additional extension, the United States and Russia continue a nuclear arms race, unrestricted. The replacement of the New START treaty is unlikely, as an informal extension of the treaty was proposed by President Putin last fall that would allow time for further negotiation was indirectly rejected by President Trump, who seemed unphased by the conclusion of the New Start Treaty. Alternatively, Trump is hoping to sign an agreement similar to the New Start Treaty that is multilateral: this time, including both Russia and China. As was revealed in 2025, China has spent years developing their nuclear arsenal, going from an estimated 300 nuclear weapons in 2020, to 600 in 2025, and an estimated 1000 in 2030. China publically displaying their intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) was intended to deter the US from becoming involved in a Taiwan conflict should it arise and to act as a step toward disrupting the US’s leadership in international politics. While both China and Russia are building up their arsenals in preparation for something of an arms race, the United States is falling behind, which explains Trump’s desperation to include both in a multilateral agreement. However, he is currently failing to adequately appeal to their interests.
Despite China’s rapidly developing nuclear arsenal, it still does not come close to the size of either Russia’s or the United States’-- While Russia has 5459 warheads and USA has 5277, China only has 600 reported. As the New Start Treaty was based on a foundation of military equality between the US and Russia, both parties would have to allow China to rapidly expand their arsenal to arrive at the same development and deployment thresholds. Additionally, Russia has expressed interest in expanding the agreement to include France and the UK, with 290 and 225 warheads, respectively, which further complicates the agreement. Considering the one-year development time of the New Start treaty, which was only a bi-lateral agreement, and the complications posed by Trump’s specificity in international partners, the revival of a similar agreement seems increasingly unlikely. Although China’s development capabilities pose a reasonable threat, they may not be worth eliminating a bilateral agreement with Russia.
Source List
Burnett, Alistair. “The Expiration of New START: What It Means and What’s Next.” ICAN, 2026, www.icanw.org/new_start_expiration.
“For the First Time in Decades, the U.S. And Russia Have No Limits on Nuclear Weapons.” NPR, 4 Feb. 2026, www.npr.org/2026/02/04/nx-s1-5697382/new-start-nuclear-treaty-expired-us-russia.
ICAN. “The World’s Nuclear Weapons.” ICAN, 2023, www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals.
Pifer, Steven. “What Comes after New START?” Brookings, 19 Feb. 2026, www.brookings.edu/articles/what-comes-after-new-start/.
Rodgers, Joseph, and Heather Williams. “Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal out of the Shadows.” Csis.org, 2025, www.csis.org/analysis/parading-chinas-nuclear-arsenal-out-shadows.
U.S. Department of State. “New START Treaty - United States Department of State.” United States Department of State, 14 Jan. 2025, www.state.gov/new-start-treaty.